New Technologies: New Politics
Why and How Technology is Changing the Face of the World

Francis Fukuyama the world renowned American author of the article which became a book "The End of History" presented the end of the Cold War as evidence of the triumph of liberal democracy over all political ideologies. 

The topic of his latest book "Our Posthuman Future" is as timely now as his forecast of the failure of communism in 1989.  When on the 10th Anniversary of his landmark article Fukuyama was asked to reflect on what had changed since its publication, he found himself focussing on biotechnology.  Alarmed by the potentially sinister consequences of people being able to manipulate genes and control evolution, he envisons a threat to humanity itself.  This view is presented in TIME Magazine of 17 June, 2002.

"Science and technology are two of the big forces driving history forward," he says.  "This new technological era is clearly going to have implications for politics."  He warns that without proper regulation, the worst case-scenario would be a world divided between genetic have's and have-not's. 

"We could get people making choices with regard to their children that will lead to quirky results," he says.  Fukuyama sometimes attends church with his wife and children, but stresses that religion plays little role in shaping his theories.  The walls that separate the two sides on the bio-technology debate however, could prove more difficult to breach than the Berlin Wall whose fall Fukuyama predicted.      

On the socio-economic front, Fukuyama says the strain that rapidly aging populations and low birth rates place on national resources, particularly in Europe, is of serious concern.  The influx of immigrants needed to fill labour shortages is already contributing to social upheaval and he says, "unless governments get serious about addressing this in moderate form now, it's going to come back and haunt them in a much nastier form later on."

Fukuyama claims that the big story of global politics is modernisation - a process that begins with economic development and brings in its wake democracy and a kind of cultural convergence.  It's replaced the Cold War as the basic structure of world politics.  There are those societies that participate in it, those who would like to participate in it and can't, and others that reject it powerfully.

In addition Fukuyama expresses surprise at the US - Europe divide, particularly on the role of international institutions.  He comments that the he believes that it's a widely held American view that there isn't this "international community" out there that more legitimate than the elected representatives of the people. On the other hand most Europeans are at a point in their national histories where they will accept judgements by this larger community.    

What Do these Comments Mean from a Values Perspective?
It is important to put the above comments into perspective from a values viewpoint as understanding the values technology allows one to see why these comments are particularly relevant at the start of the 21st Century:

The Story of Modernisation
Modernisation as described by Francis Fukuyama in values terms means that the modernised, high technology economies are those operating in the Post-Modern era spanning the Orange/Green/Yellow values spectrum.  Countries falling into this category are the USA/Canada, Europe, Japan and a number of other developed countries such as Australia and New Zealand.

The second category are countries who would like to participate in the modern technological age.  These countries already possess a reasonable technology base but have still some way to go to full modernisation.  The values range in this case from Red/Blue/Orange/Green and cover emerging economies such as those in Eastern Europe, Russia, China, India and South Africa.  There are however, other values present in many of these countries including strong Purple and Red which in turn may retard the pace of progress towards modernisation through a lack of skills and relatively high levels of crime and corruption in the public sector. 

The third group includes many of the less developed countries (LDC's) who often express resistance to many of the more established values and norms found in the modern and modernising economies. These countries are often those that still support outdated communist style philosophies. The values spectrum in these countries ranges from Purple through Red to Blue.  This group includes countries like Cuba, Haiti, many African countries and other countries in the less developed regions of the world including South America and parts of Asia.  

The USA - European Divide
The difference between the two groups relates to values with the US being in Blue/Orange/Green with Europe occupying the Orange/Green/Yellow spectrum.  Although the values spectrum is the same, the emphasis is different.   However, the United Kingdom is closer to the US than Europe in the values spread.  This reflects in the on-going debate around the Euro and other issues.

As mentioned in our article on "Different Values: Different Democracy" the UK is certainly closer to the federal than unitary model of democracy.  This is this seen in the devolution of power to Scotland and Wales in the UK.  It also results in the  major debates in the UK around European structural issues of governance coming from Brussels which are more unitary than federal in style.

The Socio-Economic Front
The whole question of aging populations and immigration into the European Union  are seen by Fukuyama as key issues.  Many of these immigrants come from less developed countries bordering the EU, particularly around the Mediterranean basin.  In addition many are not able to speak the home language of the host country.  This has resulted in the recent swing back to the centre in recent elections with the left losing ground to the centre right parties in both France and the Netherlands.  It is also anticipated that a similar swing will be experienced in the German elections to be held later this year.     

Technology is also resulting in fewer jobs in the formal economy with massive job losses in many industries.  Over time this will result in some of these displaced employees taking other employment in new industries.
Often these employees move from the corporate to small business sector as self-employed entrepreneurs, particularly where the education and skills levels of those affected are relatively high.

In a fully globalised economy there should be natural flows of employees from north to south, east to west to fill economic needs.  However, this natural flow is often restricted due to curbs in both the developed and developing world.  This in turn distorts the natural flows in the newly globalising labour market though increasingly work is being out-sourced through technology over the internet.  A good example of this is the high level of IT capacity located in India servicing many organisations in both Europe, North America and other countries around the globe.

In a truly globalised economy, skills would be able to be swiftly transferred from one region to the next. This in turn would release additional demand into the global economy with many sectors benefiting from this.  Appropriate technology and access to the internet significantly assists in this area.  

A Possible Role for Bio-technology
There is global concern on the possible role of bio-technology in the future.  On the one hand there are potentially massive gains to be had in the production of genetically modified foods which are drought resistant and well suited to the less developed regions of the world. On the other hand stem cell research is a particularly controversial area requiring additional careful consideration by both scientists and political leadership at both the global and regional levels.  

Some Concluding Observations
In considering Fukuyama's points there is little doubt that the increasing pace of globalisation could result in an ever widening gap between the have's and have not's. At the same time there is a great opportunity for developing economies to use technology as a way of leap-frogging their way into the 21st Century.

Examples of this are in wireless technology where it is possible to the LDC's to install cellular networks at a fraction of the cost of the more traditional wired communications networks. Technology used strategically can result in a significant percentage of the poorer, less developed countries being able to move more rapidly and effectively into the 21st Century.  It will also create additional jobs in both the developed and developing economies for products whose demand curves have flattened in many countries in the developed world.

Electricity supply can also be located and produced close to relatively isolated areas as the technology is now available to produce small, efficient power stations using the latest technology. However, for these technologies to be employed it is essential that the environment should be peaceful and stable.  There are not going to be investments in countries where stability and order are not an integral part of the national mix.  This will require the politicians to be able to produce suitable governance models that will adequately meet these requirements. 

If the developing world is to change significantly, then the challenge is for the politicians in these countries to transform their models of governance to one that is universally acceptable. The challenge is there and needs to be grasped.   Can the politicians do it?  Only time will tell!     

Alan Tonkin
CEO: Global Values Network
20 June, 2002